Describe how the Prosecutor’s Fallacy could impact the interpretation of the test.

Virus Testing

(a) Obtain the reported sensitivity and specificity for a test related to the COVID- , and make a reasonable assumption for prevalence. Interpret these values, and discuss the relative importance of the sensitivity and specificity for this test. (10marks)

(b) Describe how the Prosecutor’s Fallacy could impact the interpretation of the test.

(c) As a member of the scientific committee, Sage & Thyme, you are tasked with advising the government on the purchase of a diagnostic kit for mass testing.

There are two pharmaceutical companies, Cow boy International, who claim that their test has a positive predictive value (PPV)of 90%, and Touch Me Not Ltd., who claim aPPV of 95%.

What additional information, if any, would you request from the developersto help you advise the government?

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