Analyze the domestic- and international-level constraints that United States decision-makers would face in assessing a response to this situation. What are two major domestic and two major international constraints? Discuss the main actors involved and the nature of the constraints.

Instructions

Overview:

In the Week Six Progress Assignment, you are presented with a crisis situation involving North Korea, and asked to write a policy analysis and recommendation on the best way to proceed.

Background:

Crisis Situation: North Korean Ballistic Missile Test

Since the 1950-53 Korean War, North Korea has feared that Washington is intent on destroying the regime. The U.S. worries that Pyongyang will re-ignite the conflict with South Korea, and is uneasy because little is known about Kim Jong Un, the North’s new, young leader, and considers him unpredictable. Both sides have ratcheted up the rhetoric and military muscle moves in recent weeks.

Situation:

The crisis developed after North Korea threatened to carry out a preemptive nuclear strike against its enemies, including the United States, in response to United Nations sanctions imposed because of an underground nuclear test in February and a rocket test in December. In recent days the North Koreans have readied missiles for launch and some speculated this would happen on the day that the state celebrates the birth of founder Kim Il Sung, current leader Kim Jong Un’s grandfather.

The threats are seen as an effort to pressure Washington and Seoul to change their North Korean policies and convince the North’s people that their new leader is strong enough to stand up to its foes. U.S. and South Korean troops have been conducting annual joint military drills in the region since early March, including bringing out nuclear-capable stealth bombers and fighter jets in what the Air Force acknowledged was a deliberate show of force.

North Korea has been steadily working to display an increasing capability to launch missiles. Last year it failed in an attempt to send a satellite into space aboard a long-range rocket. A subsequent launch in December was successful, and that was followed by the country’s third underground nuclear test on February 12, 2013. U.S. officials believe the North is preparing to test fire a medium-range “Musudan” missile. And a section in a new Defense Intelligence Agency assessment concludes with “moderate confidence” that the North could deliver nuclear weapon by ballistic missiles. The report notes that the delivery system is still not considered reliable.

Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea not to conduct a missile test, saying it will be an act of provocation that “will raise people’s temperatures” and further isolate the country and its people. President Barack Obama said his administration would “take all necessary steps” to protect American citizens and he urged Pyongyang to end its brazen threats. North Korea has issued no specific warnings to ships and aircraft that a missile test is imminent. China has been a longtime political, military and economic backer of North Korea and is considered to have more real leverage over the North. U.S. officials say there are indications Chinese leaders have become frustrated with Pyongyang’s recent behavior and rhetoric.

Instructions:
Imagine that you are writing a recommendation to the President of the United States on the best way to respond to this potential crisis situation. Be sure to address the following questions.

1.   Analyze the domestic- and international-level constraints that United States decision-makers would face in assessing a response to this situation. What are two major domestic and two major international constraints? Discuss the main actors involved and the nature of the constraints.

2.   Investigate three different options available to the United States, and evaluate the best option. Craft a recommended response to this situation while considering how North Korea’s move to consolidate and seek recognition for its nuclear weapons status conflicts with the Obama administration’s efforts to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons.

Here are some considerations to take into account:

·         Whose interests does the United States have to consider?
·         Do those interests conflict with or complement those of the United States?
·         Should the United States work unilaterally, bilaterally, or multilaterally?
Keep your audience in mind; you are writing a policy brief and recommendation for the President of the United States.

Your paper should be 8-10 total pages, not including the references page. Include a minimum of 4-6 sources. Please organize your paper in the following way:

Section 1.
Introduction – 1 page

Introduction paragraph and thesis statement (statement of the problem and the proposed solution) – ½ page

Brief background and current state of affairs on the crisis situation – ½ page

Section 2.
Assessment of constraints that the President will have to take into account – 1 page

Two domestic-level constraints – ½ page
Two international-level constraints – ½ page

Section 3.
Evaluation of three options – 2 pages

Section 4.
Recommendation and Conclusions – 2 pages

Recommendation on which of the three foreign policy options the President should use to address this crisis situation and why – 1.5 pages

Conclusion (wrap up, summarize your main arguments, and address any considerations of future importance) – ½ page

All assignments should be written in Word and uploaded as attachments within the Assignments section of the classroom. Use 12 pt. font and double-space. Use in-text citations and include a reference page in Turabian style. Insert page numbers. Be sure to put your name and class information on the document and put your name on the file. Assignments will be graded using a rubric appropriate for your class level.

(Adapted from www.worldnews.com and www.foxnews.com, A look at the North Korea Crisis)

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