Generate a probability tree to identify which of our current suspects are most likely to have committed the crime.

Description

Jack Hammer, the Lead Detective on the City Museum heist, just sent you some details to bring you up to speed on where we are in the case, and to get you looking at the accumulated evidence. He wants you to use some of your math skills to help Eye Spy detectives focus on which suspects are most likely, given all of our information to date. The information includes the samples that were found and processed according to the team’s final search algorithm, which included your input — more on that later.

In particular, Jack would like for you to generate a probability tree to identify which of our current suspects are most likely to have committed the crime. He left a copy of the current Status Report for this case, along with a Suspect Report, on your desk.

We’ve got a new tool we’re testing, called a probability tree. Each “level” of the tree has been built to include the relative likelihoods of having (or not having) a trait or skill that’s important to the case . Each node is “weighted” based on our Eye Spy analysts’ estimates of the importance of that trait or skill to our case. The analysts started putting the tree together (see submission file), but got pulled onto another case temporarily, so I’d like you to finish the tree and calculate the relative likelihood for each of our suspects.

The analysts included instructions and a sample calculation for you in the Excel file as it currently stands, demonstrating how the relative probability of a given branch of our tree would be calculated.

Turn in completed Probability Tree Download Probability TreeExcel template:

Use details from the Status Report and the Suspect Report to complete the Probability Tree. Fill in all missing labels and percentages for each node of the tree.

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