Has your study of probability changed your beliefs regarding the validity of sources that put forth “probable outcomes”?

GRADED DISCUSSION: If it’s probable, then why didn’t it happen?
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BACKGROUND: There’s a major problem with probability: it doesn’t work very well. For example, common knowledge tells me that in a fair coin toss I have 50% odds of flipping heads and 50% odds of flipping tails. But flip a coin once and you’ll either get 100% tails or 100% heads.

Now, I get it. I mean, don’t worry. After many flips, blah blah blah. We can study a fair coin toss for two weeks, counting total possibilities, various games, expected values, etc. but none of this helps me guess the next flip at all. Even in the next six flips there’s a depressingly low chance of getting three heads and three tails. We certainly can’t rely on it happening in our little experiment while we try to convince people of what “50% likely” means!

YOUR ASSIGNMENT:

Research a probability that is of interest. This could be anything from the probability of a major earthquake in California to the lottery.
Examine the probability and evaluate the source of the information, how the probability was calculated, etc.
Share your thoughts on the probability you selected and probability in general.

INITIAL POST:

(1) The probability that you selected, why you selected it, how the probability was derived as well as the source of your information.

(2) How do you reconcile the probability and the actual occurrence of the event?

(3) Has your study of probability changed your beliefs regarding the validity of sources that put forth “probable outcomes”?

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