Forecasting Section of Aviation Planning Project:
Part 1: Historical Aeronautical Activity and Based Aircraft
This section provides a discussion of ISM’s historical activity levels to begin building a context for the forecast of aviation demand at the Airport. This section should describe the types and levels of aviation activity at the airport over the past 20 years. It should include tables and figures as appropriate. The tabulated data should include the number of based aircraft, the number of annual airport operations as applicable. Years to be referenced: 2000-2019 .
Once you have this data, combine it in a table with years 2010-2019 and depict it in graphical form. You should show at a minimum a graph of the previous 20 years of total operations at ISM and a graph of the previous 20 years of based aircraft at ISM.
Year
ISM
Southern Region
Florida
Total Ops
Total BA
Total Ops
Total BA
Total Ops
Total BA
2010
120,826
175
22,384,855
30,816
7,636,144
10,919
2011
124,668
166
22,384,428
29,240
7,660,402
10,820
2012
120,962
135
22,249,158
30,156
7,712,381
11,279
2013
110,324
141
22,293,492
31,115
7,881,366
11,538
2014
85,708
147
22,137,200
32,143
7,867,890
11,822
2015
83,057
134
22,479,343
30,779
8,123,940
11,345
2016
83,527
134
22,085,051
33,028
8,186,968
11,983
2017
86,664
161
22,351,789
31,861
8,258,266
11,560
2018
102,532
155
22,842,618
30,827
8,623,420
10,746
2019
135,290
206
23,463,977
31,811
8,960,741
11,684
*Data retrieved from the FAA TAF; BA: Based Aircraft
Part 2: Forecast – Annual Operations, ADPM, Peak Hour, and Based Aircraft
This section should include a forecast of total annual operations for ISM for the years 2020 through to 2040. An operations forecast should be completed using a trend analysis for the 20-year planning period. For total future operations at ISM, use the 5-year trend average for your forecast calculations. In addition, develop forecast for the Average Day Peak Month and Peak Hour operation in the years 2020 and 2040. In the Year 2020 the peak month is August and is 10.5 percent of annual operations. In addition, peak hour operations are 12.0% percent of operations during the average day of the peak month. Lastly, forecast the based aircraft for 2020 through 2040 using trend analysis. Use the 10-year trend average to forecast the based aircraft.
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