POLS1155 Comparative Politics
Generating Hypotheses
The Polity IV dataset contains a variable called “polity2.”
This is a standard measure that political scientists use to capture the level of democracy in a
country. It ranges from -10 (least democratic, most autocratic) to +10 (most democratic).
In class, we will talk about how the measure is put together, but you do not need to know
that for this assignment.
Consider the graphics provided, then answer the following questions. The histogram
summarizes basic global data on polity2 in 1997, 2007, and 2017. The dashed lines indicate
the global mean (i.e. average) of polity2 in a given year.
The maps show each country’s polity2 score in a given year (countries for which data is not
available appear white).
(1) What is the mean value of polity2 in 2017? What are the two most common values of polity2 in 2017? Finally, describe in words what you think states that have each of these values on the variable (the mean and the two most common values) look like in the real world. Use no more than 2 sentences to describe the characteristics of states with each of the three scores. [4 points]
(2) Briefly describe the variation in polity2 across regions and over time. To do so, summarize the trend for polity2 for each region (e.g. Are some regions more democratic/autocratic than others? How significant are these differences?).
Then, summarize the trend for polity2 for each of the years represented in the maps (e.g. what changes, if any, do you observe in polity2 between 1997, 2007 and 2017?). [5
points]
(3) In light of the description you produced for (2):
a. Offer one hypothesis for the variation you observe in the level of democracy over time. Write no more than 2 sentences.
b. Offer one hypothesis for the variation you observe in the level of democracy across different regions. Write no more than 2 sentences.
[6 points]
This assignment is worth 15 points and 10% of your course grade.
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