Market Share Forecast Homework -1
Homework Market Share: Submit Excel Sheet
Forecast Laredo International Airport airline enplanements using the data in the in class example. Using a 10-year average market share, develop projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Show your answers in a table.
Year
Total Airline Enplanements
Southwest Region Enplanements
Market Share (%)
1990
59,279
60,925,903
0.0973%
1991
65,651
60,467,718
0.1086%
1992
80,593
63,396,932
0.1271%
1993
92,110
64,296,680
0.1433%
1994
97,998
67,434,877
0.1453%
1995
64,198
70,689,841
0.0908%
1996
57,996
72,061,761
0.0805%
1997
61,728
74,341,596
0.0830%
1998
79,714
75,957,918
0.1049%
1999
88,969
77,056,344
0.1155%
2000
90,647
79,833,666
0.1135%
2001
82,400
80,184,741
0.1028%
Ten Year Average
???
2005
???
93,167,307
???
2010
???
110,022,766
???
2015
???
126,843,590
???
2020
???
143,846,242
???
2025
???
160,775,532
???
How does this forecast differ from that using the 5-year average?
Which forecast would you select and why?
Forecast Homework – Regression Analysis
Using data in the below in class example, forecast GA operations using effective buying income (X2) as the independent variable. Develop forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Show your answers in a table.
Questions:
How does this forecast differ from that using employment as the independent variable?
What is the coefficient of determination for this scenario and what does it imply?
Service Area
Year
GA Operations (Y)
Employment (X1)
Effective Buying Income (X2)
2000
22,513
45,714
$8,433
2001
23,768
48,601
$9,207
2002
21,838
51,314
$10,106
2003
25,904
54,107
$10,457
2004
26,208
57,848
$11,055
2005
26,946
56,022
$11,016
2006
27,977
56,317
$11,399
2007
27,294
58,757
$11,883
2008
28,647
61,556
$12,119
2009
29,270
62,341
$12,213
Forecast
2010
66,533
$13,081
2015
73,491
$14,609
2020
82,189
$16,525
2030
99,584
$20,369
